category archives: Secular Bear Markets

  Depression
 

It’s Time To Start Calling This For What It Is: A Modern Day Depression

  • Written by David
  • September 14, 2011 at 12:25 pm
  • 0

I recently posted a blog article on August 10, 2011 titled, “I was Two Years Too Early.. Preserving Wealth” where I would catalog my blog postings over the past two years stating my convictions on wealth preservation. Today’s missive by Rosenberg is to many, a stunner. For me it is not a stunner, merely recognition [...]

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  wmc110829b
 

A Reprieve from Misguided Recklessness

  • Written by David
  • August 29, 2011 at 12:29 pm
  • 0

More thought provoking work from John Hussman Ph.D. All text below from article. Bolded text by DGWA. Click for full article here. Valuation Review There are certainly alternative methods of valuation embraced by Wall Street analysts. In particular, many analysts view the market as “cheap” based on forward operating earnings, without any consideration for the [...]

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  RPAG
 

I was Two Years Too Early.. Preserving Wealth

  • Written by David
  • August 10, 2011 at 11:58 am
  • 0

In August 2009, I would begin publishing articles on my blog regarding concern for the amount of debt in the world and how that debt would eventually, and negatively, impact financial markets around the world.  In those posts I began to discuss measures I would take to protect client portfolios from large loss when markets [...]

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  MFLostDecade 17-19-06resized
 

Managed Futures in the Portfolio; Why and Why Now?

  • Written by David
  • June 8, 2011 at 2:56 pm
  • 1

For some time I have been monitoring/researching additional ways to increase client return, while not subjecting their portfolios to undo downside market risk; and the world seems to just get more risky hour by hour. Non-the-less, years ago I was attracted to a certain financial Strategist firm for their prescient ability to include inverse assets [...]

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The Lost Decade for S&P 500 Index, an Update ‘Eleven Years After’

  • Written by David
  • May 24, 2011 at 8:39 pm
  • 0

This work comes from Doug Short. The Lost Decade for the S&P 500 Calculations are from the  March 24, 2000 tech bubble high (The NASDAQ all time high of 5,054) to May 20, 2011. A $1,000 invested in March 2000 has merely grown to $1,070.00 eleven years later, in nominal terms. (not adjusted for inflation; [...]

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Secular Outlook: Navigating the Multi-Speed World, PIMCO

  • Written by David
  • May 17, 2011 at 8:57 am
  • 0

The text below is from PIMCO’s Secular Outlook conference held in May 2011. It was in a previous year’s ‘Secular Outlook’ that PIMCO coined the phrase ‘new normal’ relating to slower global economic growth. As I see it, the main take-away themes from the 2011 conference are: Debt-Still the number one issue around the world. [...]

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Search for Safety, Safe assets: nowhere to hide?

  • Written by David
  • February 25, 2011 at 10:40 am
  • 1

While browsing the Financial Times (FT) today, I came across this article, Safe assets: nowhere to hide (Click above title to access article) I instantly thought, this headline is not true, there are investment strategies to protect investors during sharp market declines.  David Gratke Wealth Advisors has been using such strategies for nearly ten years [...]

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No Bull, Well.. Not a New Secular Bull Market, Not Quite Yet.

  • Written by David
  • February 22, 2011 at 2:05 pm
  • 0

I recently had the opportunity to hear Ed Easterling, founder of http://www.crestmontresearch.com speak about his latest book, ‘Probable Outcomes, Secular Stock Market Insights.’ Easterling made a compeling argument that Secular Bull Markets do not begin with high Price Earnings Ratios (P/E Ratio). As I recently tweeted, “Rich Valuations, Poor Market Returns, S&P 500 Shiller P/E [...]

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